Story Point vs Hours: An Estimation Explanation

How much did you score this year? My parents asked this question twice a year throughout my schooling. When I scored 80%, they reminded me that my previous scores were better, and when I said 90%, they checked how much Sharma's son scored. They also reassured themselves with follow-up questions - are you in the top 5, top 10, or topper in your class?

I was well prepared to ask the same questions to my son, but school cheated me. They changed the percentile system and implemented a student grading system. I hope you have understood my dilemma and challenges by now.

Have you had a similar past? If yes, then you will understand why I call it a generation gap issue.

I keep telling this story in my Scrum Master training program and use it to teach senior management through coaching, particularly user story points vs hours.

What is an Agile Story Point?

An Agile Story Point is a number that tells you how big, complicated, or time-consuming a task is. It doesn't mean exact hours or days.

Teams say "this task feels like a 3-pointer" instead of "this will take 5 hours" to show how much work it needs compared to other tasks.

It's a rough, relative measure that helps teams plan better without getting stuck on exact time estimates.

For example:

• A simple task might be 1 point.

• A medium task might be 3 points.

• A very big task might be 8 points.

If you're understanding agile story points for the first time, just remember:

Story points are used to compare tasks, not to track time.

They help Agile teams plan their work better without worrying about exact hours

What are the Ideal hours?

Ideal hours show how long a task would take if you could complete it without any delays, distractions, or interruptions. Imagine it as unadulterated, concentrated development time—no emails, meetings, or context switching—just focused work on the current task.

When a developer estimates that a feature will take eight ideal hours, for instance, they are indicating that a full day of unbroken, concentrated work would be required. When you account for meetings, emails, and other daily disruptions, this could actually equal two to three calendar days.

Because managers and stakeholders could readily comprehend that "this will take 16 hours of development time," ideal hours were well-liked. It offered a clear link between budgeting and resource planning.

Understanding Story Point Estimation

Story point estimation is a relative, effort-based approach that assigns a numeric value to represent the overall complexity and effort required to complete a user story or feature. The story point scale is typically a Fibonacci sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, etc.), with each number indicating an increasing level of complexity.

The primary benefits of story point estimation include:

1. Abstraction from Time: Story points decouple the estimation process from specific time units, allowing teams to focus on the inherent complexity of the work rather than trying to predict exact hours.

2. Team Calibration: By establishing a shared understanding of the story point scale, teams can calibrate their estimation abilities and develop a consistent "velocity" over time.

3. Accommodating Uncertainty: Story point estimation accounts for the inherent uncertainty and variability involved in software development, making it a more realistic approach than precise hourly estimates.

4. Emphasis on Relative Effort: Rather than estimating each user story in isolation, story points encourage the team to consider the relative complexity of tasks in relation to one another.

However, story point estimation also has some potential drawbacks:

1. Lack of Tangible Units: The abstract nature of story points can make it challenging to translate them into concrete time or resource commitments.

2. Team-Specific Scaling: The story point scale is team-specific, which can make it difficult to compare estimates across different organizations or projects.

Potential for Bias: Team members may be tempted to game the story point system, leading to inaccurate or inflated estimates.

Understanding Hour-Based Estimation

Hour-based estimation, on the other hand, involves directly predicting the number of hours required to complete a given task or feature. This approach is more explicit and tangible, as it ties the estimation directly to time-based units.

The key benefits of hour-based estimation include:

1. Tangible Commitments: Hour-based estimates provide a clear, quantifiable understanding of the time and resources required for a project, which can be useful for planning and budgeting purposes.

2. Familiarity: Many team members and stakeholders are already accustomed to thinking in terms of hours, making hour-based estimation a more intuitive and comfortable approach.

3. Easier Tracking and Reporting: Hour-based estimates can be more easily tracked, measured, and reported against, as they align directly with actual time spent on tasks.

The potential drawbacks of hour-based estimation include:

1. Difficulty Accounting for Uncertainty: Predicting exact hours for software development tasks can be challenging due to the inherent variability and unpredictability of the work.

2. Potential for Micro-Management: Hour-based estimates can sometimes lead to a focus on "hitting the numbers" rather than delivering working software, potentially fostering a culture of micro-management.

3. Disregard for Relative Effort: Hour-based estimation can overlook the relative complexity of tasks, as each item is treated in isolation rather than in the context of the broader project.

This is the heart of the safe story points vs hours debate—SAFe encourages collaborative, team-based estimation, making story points ideal for scaling Agile.

When to Use Story Point Estimation

Story point estimation is generally well-suited for the following scenarios:

1. Agile Environments: Story points align well with the iterative, incremental nature of agile software development, where the focus is on delivering working software rather than tracking exact time spent.

2. Uncertain or Complex Tasks: When the scope, requirements, or technical implementation of a user story or feature is unclear or subject to change, story points can provide a more flexible and accurate estimation approach.

3. Establishing Team Velocity: By using story points to measure the team's capacity and productivity over time, you can establish a reliable velocity metric to inform future planning and prioritization.

4. Comparing Relative Effort: Story point estimation encourages the team to consider the relative complexity of different tasks, making it easier to prioritize and sequence the work.

5. Mitigating Bias: Story points can help reduce the influence of individual team members' biases or preconceptions about the effort required for a task, as the focus is on the team's collective understanding of complexity.

When to Use Hour-Based Estimation

Hour-based estimation may be more appropriate in the following scenarios:

1. Contractual or Compliance-Driven Projects: In situations where there are strict time or budget constraints, or when working with clients who require explicit hourly commitments, hour-based estimation can provide the necessary tangible data.

2. Maintenance or Support Work: For tasks that involve well-understood, repetitive work (such as bug fixes or minor enhancements), hour-based estimation can be a more straightforward and accurate approach.

3. Resource Allocation and Capacity Planning: When determining how to allocate team members or other resources across multiple projects, hour-based estimation can provide a clearer picture of the time and staffing requirements.

4. Stakeholder Familiarity: If your organization or stakeholders are more comfortable with hour-based estimation, it may be beneficial to use this approach to align with their expectations and facilitate better communication.

5. Tracking and Reporting: For teams that need to closely monitor and report on actual time spent versus estimated time, hour-based estimation can provide the necessary data and metrics.

Combining Story Points and Hour Estimation

In many cases, the most effective approach is to leverage a combination of story point and hour-based estimation, taking advantage of the strengths of each method:

1. User Story Points for Planning and Prioritization: Employ story point estimation to determine the relative complexity and priority of user stories or features, allowing the team to focus on delivering the most valuable work first.

2. Translate Story Points to Hours for Resourcing and Budgeting: Once the story point estimates have been established, use historical team velocity to convert the story point values into approximate hour estimates. This can help with resource allocation, budgeting, and stakeholder communication.

3. Track Actual Hours Spent: Encourage team members to track the actual time spent on tasks, comparing the hour-based actuals to the initial story point-derived estimates. This can help refine the team's estimation capabilities over time.

4. Regularly Review and Adjust: Continuously review the team's estimation accuracy and make adjustments to the story point scale or hour conversion factors as needed. This helps ensure the estimation process remains aligned with the team's evolving capabilities and the project's requirements.

By adopting a hybrid approach that leverages the strengths of both story point and hour-based estimation, you can create a more comprehensive, accurate, and flexible estimation system to support your agile software development efforts.

Best Practices for Effective Estimation

Regardless of whether you choose to use story points, hours, or a combination of both, there are several best practices to keep in mind to ensure your estimation process is as effective as possible:

1. Involve the Entire Team: Estimation should be a collaborative effort, with input from developers, designers, product owners, and other relevant stakeholders. This helps build a shared understanding of the work and reduces bias.

2. Establish Clear Estimation Criteria: Define a consistent set of guidelines, examples, and definitions to help the team calibrate their understanding of the story point or hour-based scale.

3. Continuously Refine and Improve: Regularly review your estimation accuracy, identify areas for improvement, and make adjustments to your processes. This may include revisiting historical estimates, analyzing variance, and incorporating lessons learned.

4. Communicate Estimation Clearly: Ensure that stakeholders, clients, and other interested parties understand the purpose and limitations of your estimation approach, setting appropriate expectations around the accuracy and reliability of the numbers.

5. Leverage Historical Data: As your team gains experience, track and analyze your actual effort versus estimated effort to inform future estimates and improve the precision of your forecasting.

6. Account for Uncertainty and Risk: Build in appropriate buffers or contingency plans to address the inherent unpredictability of software development, especially for complex or novel tasks.

By following these best practices, regardless of whether you choose story points, hours, or a hybrid approach, you can create a more effective, accurate, and transparent estimation process to support your agile software development initiatives.

Conclusion

The change from ideal hours to story points is similar to many changes in technology and methods, such as going from percentages to grades, waterfall to agile, and individual to team focus.

There is a "generation gap," but it can be crossed with patience, understanding, and a focus on results instead of things.

Stakeholders can learn that story points and even agile complexity points represent real progress, just like my parents learned that their grandchild's "A" grade meant real learning (even without a percentage). Story points are often more accurate than the false precision of hour estimates.

When evaluating story points vs hours in Agile, it's not about which is “better,” but about picking the right tool for your situation, team maturity, and business needs.